Wednesday, November 09, 2005
Rauschenberger Campaign Promotes Zogby Poll Results…Again
Originally posted Nov. 8th.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Rauschenberger’s campaign is again touting Zogby poll results that show Rauscheneberger in a dead heat with Governor Rod Blagojevich.
The first time was in mid-September. The Rauschenberger campaign trumpeted that he was leading Governor Rod Blagojevich by one percentage point 42%-41%. Now, it’s said to be 42%-41%, with the Governor in the lead, as it was at the end of August. The margin of error is 3.3%.
What the poll is saying is that the Governor and Rauschenberger are in a dead heat for over almost a three-month period. That’s what the Wall Street Journal says its pollster Zolby says anyway.
Unanswered, however, is how well the Zogby poll thinks Rauschenberger is doing vis-à-vis the other GOP primary candidates. To have the best chance to beat Blgojevich is not worth very much if one does not win the primary election.
The Rauschenberger campaign did not release the whole Zogby poll, a subscription to which costs $199 per year. Only the numbers favorable to Rauschenberger were made public by his campaign.
How the GOP primary candidates compare was made available in an October 5th-9th Market Shares poll (with a 5% margin of error) paid for by the Chicago Tribune and published on October 17th, however.
Little surprise the Zogby results were not released if they are anything like those released in the Chicago Tribune.
The Tribune’s poll results showed Rauschenberger in a weak third place, tied with a candidate having virtually no Chicago metropolitan area name identification.
Topinka - 31%
Oberweis - 15%
Rauschenberger and Brady - 7%
Birkett - 5%
Gidwitz - 4%
Undecided 27%
Another Candidate 3%
No head-to-head rack-up was provided for the GOP potentials against Governor Blagojevich in the Tribune article.
The Zogby polls commissioned by the Wall Street Journal are not traditional phone or in-person polls. They are taken over the internet.
Meanwhile, in Arkansas, the following criticism was levied against the WSJ Zogby Arkasas poll today:
“Delana Jones, spokeswoman for (Democrat Mark) Beebe's campaign, questioned the reliability of the poll, saying that it was done online by people who had to sign up to participate.
"This poll is at odds with polls that use professionally accepted and proven methodologies, like The Arkansas poll that was released last week," she said in the Arkansas News Bureau on Nov. 8th.
Zogby says it asks individuals who register on-line at its site to ”provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby, which in turn examined that data and contacted individuals by telephone to confirm that it was valid.
“Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data,” its web site says. ” To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.
“The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 40 telephone calls in 19 states (including Illinois) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups.”
To return to McHenry County Blog, click here.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Rauschenberger’s campaign is again touting Zogby poll results that show Rauscheneberger in a dead heat with Governor Rod Blagojevich.
The first time was in mid-September. The Rauschenberger campaign trumpeted that he was leading Governor Rod Blagojevich by one percentage point 42%-41%. Now, it’s said to be 42%-41%, with the Governor in the lead, as it was at the end of August. The margin of error is 3.3%.
What the poll is saying is that the Governor and Rauschenberger are in a dead heat for over almost a three-month period. That’s what the Wall Street Journal says its pollster Zolby says anyway.
Unanswered, however, is how well the Zogby poll thinks Rauschenberger is doing vis-à-vis the other GOP primary candidates. To have the best chance to beat Blgojevich is not worth very much if one does not win the primary election.
The Rauschenberger campaign did not release the whole Zogby poll, a subscription to which costs $199 per year. Only the numbers favorable to Rauschenberger were made public by his campaign.
How the GOP primary candidates compare was made available in an October 5th-9th Market Shares poll (with a 5% margin of error) paid for by the Chicago Tribune and published on October 17th, however.
Little surprise the Zogby results were not released if they are anything like those released in the Chicago Tribune.
The Tribune’s poll results showed Rauschenberger in a weak third place, tied with a candidate having virtually no Chicago metropolitan area name identification.
Topinka - 31%
Oberweis - 15%
Rauschenberger and Brady - 7%
Birkett - 5%
Gidwitz - 4%
Undecided 27%
Another Candidate 3%
No head-to-head rack-up was provided for the GOP potentials against Governor Blagojevich in the Tribune article.
The Zogby polls commissioned by the Wall Street Journal are not traditional phone or in-person polls. They are taken over the internet.
Meanwhile, in Arkansas, the following criticism was levied against the WSJ Zogby Arkasas poll today:
“Delana Jones, spokeswoman for (Democrat Mark) Beebe's campaign, questioned the reliability of the poll, saying that it was done online by people who had to sign up to participate.
"This poll is at odds with polls that use professionally accepted and proven methodologies, like The Arkansas poll that was released last week," she said in the Arkansas News Bureau on Nov. 8th.
Zogby says it asks individuals who register on-line at its site to ”provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby, which in turn examined that data and contacted individuals by telephone to confirm that it was valid.
“Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data,” its web site says. ” To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.
“The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 40 telephone calls in 19 states (including Illinois) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups.”
To return to McHenry County Blog, click here.
# posted by Cal Skinner : 6:45 PM
