Thursday, March 16, 2006
How Much Will District 300 Tax Hikers Spend to “Buy” Your Vote?
Starting with the money not spent on the last tax rate hike election, which tanked over 2-1 (10,502 to 4,002) at the sneakiest of election dates (the 2003 February 25th township primary election) and adding everything revealed collected so far, the tax hikers have over $150,000 available. A lot of that has been spent already, of course.
But, a leader of this merry band of tax hikers says they are $40,000 short of their fundraising goal. I expect a lot of that to show up on the day before or the day of the election or even after the election. Needless to say, McHenry County Blog will attempt to reveal as soon as it is reported to the State Board of Elections. So, they might end up closer to $200,000 than $150,000.
The last time a District 300 referendum was held on a primary election day was in 2002. It was a primary where the Republicans had as hard-fought campaign for the gubernatorial nomination, but a hotter Democratic Party primary, which Rod Blagojevich won.
15,886 people showed up at the polls at the 2002 primary election referendum and a $35 million Working Cash Fund was approved 8-7, a 56% “Yes” vote. In candidate politics, that is considered a landslide.
But the amount on the ballot was chump change compared this year’s request.
The biggest turnout was in 2000 at the presidential general election. Then a total of 30,531 voted on the referendum to borrow $88 million to build Westfield School and increase the tax rate maximum from $2.40 to $2.70 per $100 of A.V. The proposal passed 18,304 to 12,227—almost a 60% voting for approval.
So, let’s assume that $150,000 spent on a campaign to identify every possible “Yes” vote and get them to the polls will result in a larger turnout that the 2002 primary election, when almost 16,000 voted. But, let’s assume that the number of voters will not reach the heights of the 2000 presidential election, even allowing for the people who have moved into the district since then.
Let’s guess that 20,000 people will vote. That’s 1/3 more than voted at the 2002 primary and 2/3 of those who turned out at the 2000 general.
Most folks think this is a close election, so let’s assume the results are 50-50.
If the tax hikers get 10,000 votes, they will have spent (opps, I wrote “paid” the first time) $15 a vote.
In contrast, opponent Jack Roeser has said he is spending $30,000, so his cost would be $3 per vote, if my turnout out guesses are close and this is a close election.
Opps, again. Since there are two referendums that effectively halves the cost for each side. $7.50 per vote for the proponents; $1.50 for the opposition.
To return to McHenry County Blog, click here.
But, a leader of this merry band of tax hikers says they are $40,000 short of their fundraising goal. I expect a lot of that to show up on the day before or the day of the election or even after the election. Needless to say, McHenry County Blog will attempt to reveal as soon as it is reported to the State Board of Elections. So, they might end up closer to $200,000 than $150,000.
The last time a District 300 referendum was held on a primary election day was in 2002. It was a primary where the Republicans had as hard-fought campaign for the gubernatorial nomination, but a hotter Democratic Party primary, which Rod Blagojevich won.
15,886 people showed up at the polls at the 2002 primary election referendum and a $35 million Working Cash Fund was approved 8-7, a 56% “Yes” vote. In candidate politics, that is considered a landslide.
But the amount on the ballot was chump change compared this year’s request.
The biggest turnout was in 2000 at the presidential general election. Then a total of 30,531 voted on the referendum to borrow $88 million to build Westfield School and increase the tax rate maximum from $2.40 to $2.70 per $100 of A.V. The proposal passed 18,304 to 12,227—almost a 60% voting for approval.
So, let’s assume that $150,000 spent on a campaign to identify every possible “Yes” vote and get them to the polls will result in a larger turnout that the 2002 primary election, when almost 16,000 voted. But, let’s assume that the number of voters will not reach the heights of the 2000 presidential election, even allowing for the people who have moved into the district since then.
Let’s guess that 20,000 people will vote. That’s 1/3 more than voted at the 2002 primary and 2/3 of those who turned out at the 2000 general.
Most folks think this is a close election, so let’s assume the results are 50-50.
If the tax hikers get 10,000 votes, they will have spent (opps, I wrote “paid” the first time) $15 a vote.
In contrast, opponent Jack Roeser has said he is spending $30,000, so his cost would be $3 per vote, if my turnout out guesses are close and this is a close election.
Opps, again. Since there are two referendums that effectively halves the cost for each side. $7.50 per vote for the proponents; $1.50 for the opposition.
To return to McHenry County Blog, click here.
# posted by Cal Skinner : 6:08 AM
